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CGS-CIMB reiterates GDP forecast at -3.5 pct in 2020

 

KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 10): CGS-CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd has reiterated its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the country at -3.5 percent for 2020.

In a research note, it said this comes with a sharp rebound to +7.5 percent in the 2021 forecast, driven by normalisation of economic activity. 

It also said a quick rebound in activities, led by manufacturing, is set to stage for a recovery in the second half (2H) 2020.

The research company projected GDP to contract by 12 percent year-on-year (yoy) in the second quarter (Q2) 2020 (Q1 2020: 0.7 percent) as domestic and external COVID-19 containment measures dealt a blow to supply and demand.

However, loss of employment which eased from the peak of 18.6 million in June to 16.7 million in July, and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which remained steady at the start of 3Q20, indicates that the economic contraction in Q2 2020 may be short-lived.

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