PETALING JAYA (Nov 27): A protracted period of property supply overhang may cause a material decline in property prices as market valuation adjusts to reflect lower demand, said Moody’s Investors Service.

In a credit outlook issued today, the rating agency said that in the event of prices declining, the quality of residential mortages with high loan-to-value (LTV) ratios is most at risk.

“We understand from our rated banks in Malaysia that 20% to 30% of mortgages booked each year have LTV ratios of 90% or higher at the time of origination.

“Furthermore, we believe that suspending new property development will not correct the oversupply situation over the next five years, when property projects now in development enter the market,” it said.

Moody’s noted that besides introducing development curbs — namely on shopping malls, offices, serviced apartments and condominiums priced above RM1 million across the country — it is unclear what other steps will be taken to ensure the effective deployment and utilisation of existing surplus stock and new properties entering the market.

“In our view, the increasing oversupply and the prospects of a material property price correction will continue to build as new supply enters the market and poses a risk to Malaysian banks’ asset quality,” it said.

Moody’s noted that the number of unsold and vacant properties have risen significantly over the past three years and will likely continue to increase.

“These developments are credit negative for Malaysian banks. According to Bank Negara Malaysia, the banking system’s total loan exposures to property segments with acute oversupply (such as commercial property and high-end, high-rise residential) account for 8% of total bank lending, and the impaired loan ratios for the segments are low at 1.1% to 1.2%,” it said.

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