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Malaysia property
Food for thought: Penang property
Event
Our recent visit to property development projects in Penang supports our positive view on the Malaysian property sector. Overall feedback was that Penang property demand looks resilient with rising prices, particularly for higher end properties.
Impact
Locally-driven demand… We gather from our meetings that demand for higher end properties is driven predominantly by local Penangites, namely young executives working for Penang-based MNCs and middle income parents assisting their children in their first home purchase. There is also demand from expatriates looking to live in Penang under the Malaysia My Second Home (MM2H) package.
… keeping prices buoyant. Our channel checks indicate that prices in the secondary market for some projects launched in mid-2009 have risen by 11–19% since their launch dates. Developers have also been able to command better prices for their properties, with some projects such as IJM's The Light Point being launched at 13% above the company's initial guidance. Every 10% increase in property prices at The Light raises our valuation for IJM Corp by 1%.
Cheaper southern properties to benefit from Second Penang Bridge. While properties in the south are being priced at a 30-40% discount to the north, there is upside from the Second Penang Bridge, which is slated to be completed by 2012. Mah Sing's RM911m Southbay project is ideally located next to the Second Penang Bridge and makes up 8% of our RNAV of Mah Sing. (See Figure 1 for a map of Penang).
Affordability not an issue. It was a general consensus among the developers that affordability was not an issue in Penang and they were confident of brisk take up rates for their properties.
Outlook
We are positive on the Malaysian property sector and expect 2010 property sales to remain healthy on the back of an economic recovery. We see the recent 25bp policy rate hike as a normalisation of interest rates by Bank Negara Malaysia and expect the impact on property sales to be minimal.
While property companies under our coverage have limited exposure in Penang, our preferred play in the sector is Mah Sing, given its attractive earnings CAGR of 26% in 2009–12E and ROEs of 12–17%. Mah Sing currently trades at a 24% discount to RNAV, vs its historical discount of 13%.
We rate SP Setia, the largest listed property developer by market cap, an Underperform as we feel that valuations are too rich at current levels. SP Setia currently trades at a 20% premium to RNAV, more than one standard deviation above its historical discount of 9%.
Food for thought: Penang property
Event
Our recent visit to property development projects in Penang supports our positive view on the Malaysian property sector. Overall feedback was that Penang property demand looks resilient with rising prices, particularly for higher end properties.
Impact Locally-driven demand… We gather from our meetings that demand for higher end properties is driven predominantly by local Penangites, namely young executives working for Penang-based MNCs and middle income parents assisting their children in their first home purchase. There is also demand from expatriates looking to live in Penang under the Malaysia My Second Home (MM2H) package.
… keeping prices buoyant. Our channel checks indicate that prices in the secondary market for some projects launched in mid-2009 have risen by 11–19% since their launch dates. Developers have also been able to command better prices for their properties, with some projects such as IJM's The Light Point being launched at 13% above the company's initial guidance. Every 10% increase in property prices at The Light raises our valuation for IJM Corp by 1%.
Cheaper southern properties to benefit from Second Penang Bridge. While properties in the south are being priced at a 30-40% discount to the north, there is upside from the Second Penang Bridge, which is slated to be completed by 2012. Mah Sing's RM911m Southbay project is ideally located next to the Second Penang Bridge and makes up 8% of our RNAV of Mah Sing. (See Figure 1 for a map of Penang).
Affordability not an issue. It was a general consensus among the developers that affordability was not an issue in Penang and they were confident of brisk take up rates for their properties.
Outlook
We are positive on the Malaysian property sector and expect 2010 property sales to remain healthy on the back of an economic recovery. We see the recent 25bp policy rate hike as a normalisation of interest rates by Bank Negara Malaysia and expect the impact on property sales to be minimal.
While property companies under our coverage have limited exposure in Penang, our preferred play in the sector is Mah Sing, given its attractive earnings CAGR of 26% in 2009–12E and ROEs of 12–17%. Mah Sing currently trades at a 24% discount to RNAV, vs its historical discount of 13%.
We rate SP Setia, the largest listed property developer by market cap, an Underperform as we feel that valuations are too rich at current levels. SP Setia currently trades at a 20% premium to RNAV, more than one standard deviation above its historical discount of 9%.
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