US housing starts fall, but permits at 14-month high

WASHINGTON: US home starts unexpectedly fell last month as unusually cold weather hampered construction, but a jump in building permits to a 14-month high indicated the housing market recovery was intact.

The Commerce Department said on Jan 20 housing starts fell 4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 557,000 units, pulled down by a drop in groundbreaking activity for single-family dwellings. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected housing starts to rise to 580,000 units.

However, building permits -- which give a sense of future home construction -- soared 10.9% to 653,000 units last month, the highest level since October 2008. That was above market expectations for a rise to 590,000 units.

"At first glance housing starts were disappointing. But, they were offset by a huge jump in building permits. The data is suggestive of a continued gain in housing construction over the next several months," said Michelle Meyer, economist at Barclays Capital in New York.

November's housing starts were revised upwards to 580,000 units from the previously reported 574,000 units.

A separate report from the Labor Department showed producer prices rose 0.2% in December as food prices surged, and recorded their largest year-on-year gain in 14 months.

But core prices, which exclude food and energy, were unchanged on the month and up just 0.9% on the year, showing inflation pressures remained tame.

US financial markets largely shrugged off the data, as investors focused elsewhere. Stocks were down sharply as a decision by China to further tighten lending raised concerns about a global economic recovery. US government debt prices rose, while the dollar hit a five-month high against the euro.

Housing is on the mend after a three-year slump, thanks to a popular tax credit for first-time buyers and low mortgage rates. New home construction contributed to economic growth in the third quarter of 2009 for the first time since 2005.

But data such as pending home sales and homebuilder sentiment have hinted at potential weakness in a sector whose collapse triggered the most brutal US recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

A slip back in the housing recovery could complicate matters for President Barack Obama, whose policy agenda -- including economic growth and job creation -- has been dealt a blow by his Democratic Party's loss of a key Senate seat.

Overall new home construction activity dropped a record 38.8% to an all-time low of 553,000 units in 2009, the Commerce Department said.

Starts for single-family homes fell 6.9% last month to an annual rate of 456,000 units after rising 4% in November. Groundbreaking for the volatile multifamily segment rose 12.2% to a 101,000 unit annual pace, after surging 69.8% in November.

While bad weather was largely to blame for the drop in groundbreaking activity last month, the housing market recovery is likely to slow when the tax credit expires later this year, analysts said.

"There is still reason to be cautious. By the middle of this year the homebuyer tax credit will expire and mortgage rates will probably rise, developments that will exert a drag on sales," said Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.

Mortgage rates have been held low by the US Federal Reserve's programme to buy mortgage-related securities in the market. The US central bank is scheduled to end the programme in March.

Mortgage Bankers Association data on Jan 20 showed demand for US home loans rose last week for the third straight week as a drop in mortgage rates to a one-month low stoked refinancing.

Muted inflation pressures and the still unsettled housing market should allow the Fed to honour its pledge to keep overnight lending low for "an extended period". Officials next meet on Jan 26 and 27 to deliberate on monetary policy.

"We expect the combination of a weak labour market and a tepid recovery to keep a lid on producer pricing pressures," said Ian Pollick, economics strategist at TD Securities in Toronto. -- Reuters